• Expansion broadens
  Global expansion remains intact. Growth is broadening, disinflation continues and earnings remain exceptionally strong. Recent data increase our confidence in the expansion scenario and reduce the likelihood of a Policy Trap outcome.
• Strategy/Positioning: Stay invested, keep flexibility
  Maintain the current risk stance. Favor equities, IG credit and commodities while preserving Cash as dry powder. The only meaningful portfolio change is moving to a neutral USD stance as its diversification benefits become less compelling.
• Risk Environment: Monitor, don't overreact
  The backdrop remains supportive for risk assets. Geopolitical risks and long-end US Treasury dynamics warrant attention, but not a defensive shift. 
  Technicals – positioning, seasonality and sentiment –  argue for patience rather than adding risk, keeping flexibility to deploy capital on market weakness.

KEY TAKEAWAY

The macro backdrop has improved, but but risks, technical factors and market pricing leave limited room for error. We therefore maintain risk exposure without increasing fragile beta.

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