Discover the key movements and emerging trends shaping global markets. Our biweekly publication provides a concise overview of the most relevant shifts and insights to help you better understand the forces driving today’s financial landscape, with additional editions issued as warranted by significant market developments.
The defining investment question today is not whether energy prices are high. We examine the conditions that could lead an energy shock to evolve from a market phenomenon into a macroeconomic scenario with implications for growth, inflation and financial conditions.
The Q2 2026 earnings season has again highlighted the role of AI as a driver of corporate growth. However, beyond this phenomenon, the results reflect a broader and more diversified evolution of earnings, both in USA and in Europe. S&P 500 earnings growth remains at historically levels, while STOXX 600 earnings are recording their strongest season in recent years.
Yields on Chilean fixed income—both sovereign and corporate—remain above their historical averages. However, much of this attractiveness stems from higher base rates, while credit spreads remain at historically tight levels, offering more limited compensation for the risks assumed.
As global and emerging market portfolios become increasingly concentrated in a smaller group of countries, sectors, and themes, the diversification benefits offered by Brazil may become more relevant.
As global and emerging market portfolios become increasingly concentrated in a smaller group of countries, sectors, and themes, the diversification benefits offered by Brazil may become more relevant.
Bond markets do not always reliably predict future policy rates. Yields reflect far more than macroeconomic expectations; they also embed risk premia, liquidity conditions and compensation for uncertainty. The gilt market has recently exhibited plenty of that volatility.
In financial markets, episodes of volatility driven by geopolitical noise or other risk events are often viewed as periods in which investors should exercise caution in their portfolios.
Expectations remain constructive, particularly in the United States, where double-digit earnings growth is anticipated. In Europe, growth is expected to be more moderate, although revisions remain contained.
A sharp Middle East escalation in early March 2026 materially tightened physical flows, pushing Brent above $100/bbl and prompting talks on unprecedent G7/IEA coordinated emergency stock release.
The initial support for gold emerged in 2022–23 as real rates approached cyclical peaks. The framework subsequently broadened to incorporate deeper macro and institutional shifts.
